Pack up, Go Home

It's all over, if you haven't shorted MQG.AX it's not too late, it's going to <$10. BNB.AX to zero. BCSCA.AX to -$2.

OPEC 1: World 0, Kevin Rudd -1

The oil price has been in steady decline for a number of weeks now, and this is not due to Kevin Rudd 'Applying the Blowtorch' to OPEC over high oil prices, this is because of a decline in the marginal demand for oil (and the recent powering up of the USD). People like Kevin Rudd have no influence over the price of oil (surprising, i know) despite implementing some sort of overly complicated, expense bureaucratic nonsense website.
Anyhow, OPEC got sick of the declining price, so what do they do? They do what any rationale cartel would do, they reduced the production of oil to drive up the price. The International Herald Tribute has a good article about it here.
Despite all the bleating, domestic politicians have less influence on Global Markets than they'd like to think. Why don't the ever get called up on their blatant misrepresentations of the facts, or their chronic over-statement of their usefulness.

What becomes of the broken Tollroad? BCSCA.AX

Brisconnections (BCSCA.AX) was a scam and is a scam and while the CEO and Maccas (MQG.AX) are desperately trying to tell you that it's fine and that it's a good deal, the market are voting with their feet and getting the hell out of this train (or should it be car) wreak before they have to throw away another $2 of their hard earned. This thing could well go to zero, and if it were possible, it should be trading for a negative value because once you own the partially paid share you are obligated to pay the extra $2. There is no reason to purchase equity in this transaction. Debt holders should be nervous, equity holders should be hitting the sell button. Funny how when you rob the 7-11 of $200 they throw you in jail, but when you rob the public of hundreds of millions of dollars via a terrible deal and shonky prospectus you get away with it.

Human Behaviour

What determines the price of something? Is it the intrinsic value of that item? What is the intrinsic price? In a world where currencies aren't backed by anything other than the word of the person who printed them, then I'd argue the value of something is the price you can get for it. It's what you can exchange it for. If you can exchange a handful of promissory notes from the Australian government for a little box of electronics from Japan/USA, then he value of the currency you handed over is one Xbox/Playstation.
And why is all this relevant? Well, in Global markets, the value of something is the price that someone is willing to pay for it, and that price is what they think the intrinsic value is. It's what they think they can exchange it for in the future. And the value that they attribute to it, isn't necessarily a mathematically derived formula. It is based on a belief that the item they are purchasing has value.
Where and How they find value for it, is determined by the individual, and the individual is not acting alone. They are driven by themselves, their peers and the ideas that are hard wired into their brain. As a trader you have to learn to take advantage of this. I highly recommend read Bob Cialdini's book, Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion that spells out clearly the different, yet predictable types of responses people have to certain situations.

I'm Short Climate Change

If there was a way to get short the mass hysteria that is climate change I would jump on board with both hands. It is a massive con job. Here's some questions that everyone should be asking.

1) If it is getting hotter is it a bad thing?
-Plants grow better in high CO2, high temperature environments.
2) If it is getting hotter doesn't that mean it will rain more?
3) Won't higher temperatures mean more arable land? (get out a map people, and look at the frozen tundra of Siberia, Canada and Greenland)
4) Is it getting hotter?
5) Can we control the temperature like some sort of James Bond Villian (the answer is no, unless you have a method of altering the Earth's orbit of varying the intensity of the sun)
6) Why isn't water vapor considered a greenhouse gas?
7) If it gets hotter, doesn't that mean more water evaporation and won't this repel as much heat as it traps (therefore no change in temperature)
8)If higher temperatures are bad, does that mean colder temperatures are good? If so, why aren't we trying to make it colder?

Think before you start repeating the words of Lord Garnaut verbatim.

Why So Long?

The bull market is back baby. If you don't own Iron Ore, Coal, Oil and Phosphate you're a clown. BHP Billiton is well on it's way to becoming a $100 stock this year. And if it does, and if the Aussie banks want to keep trying to buy each other, then the ASX is well on its way back up to 6500+. In the short term the Aussie economy doesn't really care what is happening in America, higher interest rates haven't really started to bite and our Chinese speaking turnip elect hasn't done anything to put the brakes on inflation.

Told you they were rubbish

Biofuels are a waste of time, money and resources. See here. You've got to look at the big picture people.